Showers can still be expected on some days
Advisory
Singapore, 15 January 2016 – For the next fortnight, Northeast Monsoon conditions are forecast to persist with the prevailing low level winds blowing predominantly from the northeast or northwest.
2. Singapore is likely to experience widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions on 2-3 days arising from the strengthening of the northeasterly winds over the region. For the rest of the fortnight, short-duration thundery showers can be expected mostly in the afternoon and early evening on 5 to 7 days. The showers may be heavy at times on days when there is convergence of winds coupled with strong solar heating of land areas. Rainfall for January 2016 is expected to be below normal.
3. The temperature range for January 2016 is forecast to range between 24 and 34 degrees Celsius, and the mean monthly temperature for January 2016 is likely to be significantly warmer than the long-term mean of 26.5 degrees Celsius for January.
4. The significantly warmer than usual temperatures experienced in recent months¹ can be attributed to the prevailing strong El Nino, which is currently at a mature level. Based on the forecasts from international climate centres, the El Nino is expected to gradually weaken over the next few months and return to neutral conditions by around mid-2016. For the next few months, the El Nino is still expected to bring drier and warmer conditions to Singapore.
Review (1 – 14 January 2016)
5. The Northeast Monsoon season which started in early December 2015 persisted into January 2016, and the low level winds in the first fortnight blew predominantly from the northeast or northwest.
6. A weak monsoon surge at the start of 2016 brought widespread moderate rain over Singapore. The monsoon surge was due to the strengthening of northeasterly winds over the South China Sea and our surrounding regioin. Following the weak monsoon surge, for the rest of the fortnight, Singapore experienced showers in the afternoon on some days due to strong solar heating of land areas coupled with localised wind convergence.
7. The mean temperature for the first fortnight of January 2016 was 28.1 degrees Celsius. This value exceeds the highest ever recorded mean temperature of 28.0 degrees Celsius (recorded in 1998) for the whole of January. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the first fortnight of January 2016 was 31.3 degrees Celsius and 25.9 degrees Celsius respectively, well above the long term average mean of 30.4 degrees Celsius and 23.9 degrees Celsius for January, respectively.
8. Rainfall for Singapore in the first fortnight of 2016 was well below average. The southeastern part of the island received the lowest rainfall of 26mm to 29mm (70% to 75% below normal) around Buangkok and Tanjong Katong while the highest rainfall of 103mm (6% above normal) was recorded in Sentosa.
¹ November 2015 (tie with 1998) was the warmest November on record with a mean monthly temperature of 28.0 degrees Celsius. December 2015 was the warmest December on record with a mean monthly temperature of 27.7 degrees Celsius.