Smoke Forecasts Multi-Model Ensemble ICAP Ensemble Forecast Evaluation NWP Forecasts S2S Outlook
Multi-Model Ensemble


The animations show a forecast of up to 48 hours at 3-hourly intervals. The multi-model products have been generated from different atmospheric transport models which are represented using a common geographical domain and spatial resolution. There are two products describing centrality (multi-model median and mean) and two products describing the spread (standard deviation and range of variation).

It is important to note that different models may have very different characteristics (e.g. global or regional, horizontal and vertical resolutions, smoke emission characteristics, physics and chemistry parameterisations, presence or absence of smoke assimilation, feedback to the meteoroloigcal model etc.) Furthermore, some of these predictions are experimental and produced for research purposes only.

Information on the various models' configuration can be found on their respective websites and in the literature.