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Study results consistent with 5^th Assessment Report in projecting global sea-level rise, higher temperatures and more extreme rainfall in the region

Singapore, 15 April 2015 – Meteorological Service Singapore’s (MSS) Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) has released the findings for Phase 1 of the Second National Climate Change Study at a meeting of the Climate Science Experts Network[1]. The outcomes of the new Singapore study are consistent with those of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5^th Assessment Report (AR5) which projects sea level rises globally, as well as higher temperatures and more extreme rainfall for Singapore and the surrounding region. The details are outlined in paragraphs 5-11 below.

Background of Phase 1 of the 2nd National Climate Change Study

2Under the auspices of the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC), the National Environment Agency (NEA) in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom commissioned Phase 1 of the 2nd National Climate Change Study, which aimed to provide projections of changes in the main climate variables of interest to Singapore. The key highlight of this report was the use of high resolution climate models to project regional climate and sea level changes with finer spatial detail for the 21^st century over the region, centred on Singapore. The study was completed early this year.

3Phase 2 of the study, which started in end 2014, is making use of the projections from Phase 1 to examine the climate change impacts on areas such as water resources and drainage, biodiversity and greenery, network infrastructure and building infrastructure. This in turn will guide Government agencies in their planning and will serve to shape Singapore’s climate change resilience plans. Key findings from Phase 2 can be expected by end 2015.

4Phase 1 of the study makes use of the same global climate model projections that contributed to many of the findings of the physical science component of the AR5 published in 2013 (Please refer to Annex A for details of the IPCC, working groups and the assessment reports). A carefully chosen sub-set of the models for two future trajectories of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere was downscaled to a higher resolution of 12 km for the Southeast Asian region. The first trajectory (RCP8.5)[2] is related to a ‘business as usual’ scenario in which we continue to use fossil fuels with no mitigation and thus results in very high greenhouse gas emissions that continue to increase throughout the 21^st century. The second trajectory (RCP4.5) assumes future action to control emissions, which peaks in mid-century and then declines. The results from the downscaled projections with these two scenarios are the basis for the study’s findings[3].

Findings on Temperature

5For the period of 2070 – 2099 (relative to 1980-2009), the study projects that average surface temperatures across Singapore will increase by 1.4°C – 2.7°C under the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas trajectory and by 2.9°C – 4.6°C for RCP8.5.

6The findings imply that the unusually warm temperatures Singapore encounters occasionally could become the norm in the future and that days with ‘record’ temperatures above those experienced historically will become more frequent. Due to the high levels of humidity in Singapore, these projected rises in temperature will lead to increasing thermal discomfort and heat stress for those working outdoors.

7The high levels of temperature increase under the RCP8.5 scenario will be realised only if there is no global mitigation action to reduce greenhouse emissions.

Findings on Rainfall

8The projections from most models show an increasing trend, particularly during the wetter season, in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events over Singapore.

9For seasonal average rainfall, the contrast between the wetter and drier months is projected to become more pronounced, especially for the RCP8.5 trajectory and by the end of the century. The study projects an upward trend in seasonal mean rainfall during the wet season of November to January, as well as greater dryness during months that are already relatively drier in the current climate (February and June to September).

Findings on Sea Level

10For the period of 2070 – 2099 (relative to 1980-2009), the study projects a mean sea level rise of 0.25m – 0.60m under the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas trajectory and 0.35m – 0.76m for RCP8.5. Under the ‘high-emissions’ RCP8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory, the study projects a total rise of 0.45m – 1.02m by the year 2100.

11The study projects no consistent future changes in the amplitude of extreme sea level events, such as as wind driven coastal storm surges and high waves. These events will, however, occur against a backdrop of increased mean sea levels.

Staying Resilient In The Face Of Climate Change

12The effects of climate change operate in the long term, but the Government is taking a proactive approach to address its potential impact. The Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC) was established in 2007 to enhance Whole-of-Government coordination on climate change policies. The Resilience Working Group (RWG), an inter-agency platform under the IMCCC, studies Singapore’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change and recommends long-term plans that ensure the nation’s adaptation to future environmental changes. The findings from this study will provide the basis by which we continually develop long-term infrastructure adaptation plans to appropriately address the effects of climate change on Singapore’s physical environment. The Government has also set aside at least $50 million for climate resilience related studies to support Singapore’s adaptation planning efforts.

Report on Phase 1 of the Second National Climate Change Study

13A Stakeholder Report which provides a summary of the study’s methodologies and findings is now available on the CCRS website (https://ccrs.weather.gov.sg/index/). The Report is intended for those who will be actively engaged in the use of the projections for impact studies and adaptation planning.

Singapore, 21 March 2015 – Hazy conditions continue to affect Singapore today. The PM_2.5 levels are slightly elevated in most regions of Singapore this afternoon. At 6pm, the 24-hr PSI was 72-82, in the Moderate range, while the 1-hr PM_2.5 concentration was 32-42 ug/m³. There were thundery showers in the northern and central parts of Singapore in the late afternoon.

2The haziness is likely due to an accumulation of particulate matter in the atmosphere under light wind conditions. Burning activities in the region could have contributed to an increased concentration of particulate matter.

3The current hazy conditions are expected to persist for the rest of today. For tomorrow, slight haziness under light wind conditions can still be expected, and thundery showers are forecast in the late afternoon and evening. The 24-hr PSI for Singapore is expected to be in the Moderate range.

4The health impact of haze is dependent on one’s health status, the PSI level, and the length and intensity of outdoor activity. Reducing outdoor activities and physical exertion can help limit the ill effects from haze exposure. Persons who are not feeling well, especially the elderly and children, and those with chronic heart or lung conditions, should seek medical attention. Given the air quality forecast for the next 24 hours, everyone can continue with normal activities.

5For updates, visit our NEA website (www.nea.gov.sg), the haze microsite (www.haze.gov.sg), or follow us on NEA Facebook (www.facebook.com/NEASingapore) and NEA Twitter (@NEAsg).

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Singapore, 20 March 2015 – It has been hazy in Singapore today. The PM_2.5 levels are elevated in most regions of Singapore. At 8pm, the 24-hr PSI was 74-86, in the Moderate range, while the 3-hr PSI was 99, and the 1-hr PM_2.5 concentration was 16-54 ug/m³.

2The haziness is likely due to an accumulation of increased particulate matter in the atmosphere under light wind conditions throughout today. Burning activities in the Northern Asean region, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra could have contributed to the increased concentration of particulate matter.

3The current hazy conditions are expected to persist for the rest of today. For tomorrow, the prevailing winds are expected to be light and variable in direction, and hazy conditions can still be expected. The 24-hr PSI for Singapore is expected to be in the Moderate range.

4The health impact of haze is dependent on one’s health status, the PSI level, and the length and intensity of outdoor activity. Reducing outdoor activities and physical exertion can help limit the ill effects from haze exposure. Persons who are not feeling well, especially the elderly and children, and those with chronic heart or lung conditions, should seek medical attention. Given the air quality forecast for the next 24 hours, everyone can continue with normal activities.

5For updates, visit our NEA website (www.nea.gov.sg), the haze microsite (www.haze.gov.sg), or follow us on NEA Facebook (www.facebook.com/NEASingapore) and NEA Twitter (@NEAsg).

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Singapore, 15 February 2015 – Localised haze and odour was experienced by some residents in Sengkang, Hougang and Serangoon areas earlier this morning. There have been no reports of local fires in these areas.

NEA is in touch with our Malaysian counterparts, who have confirmed that a fire which originated from a bush fire on 12 February evening, has affected one of the cells at a landfill site in Pasir Gudang, southern Johor. The Malaysian authorities have highlighted that activities are underway to put out the fire in the areas and cap burnt areas with soil to prevent fires from recurring. They are monitoring the situation closely, to prevent the fire from spreading further.

The air quality in Singapore has remained in the Moderate range. NEA will continue to monitor the air quality readings and notify the public if there are any changes to the PSI.

For updates, visit our NEA website (www.nea.gov.sg), the haze microsite (www.haze.gov.sg), or follow us on NEA Facebook (www.facebook.com/NEASingapore) and NEA Twitter (@NEAsg).

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Below Average Rainfall Expected in January and February 2015

Singapore, 22 January 2015 – Singapore has been experiencing fewer rain days since mid-January 2015 with the onset of the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon. With low rainfall forecast for the rest of the month, total rainfall for January 2015 is expected to be significantly below average. Below average rainfall is also forecast for February.

2The Northeast Monsoon typically comprises a wet phase from late November to January, followed by a dry phase in February. The dry phase is characterised by drier and cooler weather and generally windy conditions. This year, the onset of the dry phase was slightly earlier than usual. A contributing factor is that of stronger winds in the surrounding region which have caused an earlier southward shift of the monsoon rain belt away from Singapore. This followed a relatively wet November and December 2014 where the total rainfall was 27% and 20% respectively above the long-term average.

3From 1 to 21 January 2015, the total rainfall averaged across rainfall stations islandwide was 83.7mm. At the Changi climate station, rainfall of 79.6mm was recorded, significantly below the long-term average of 242.4mm for January. The average daily temperature over the same period is comparable to that of recent years, and it has been more windy.

4For the rest of January 2015, generally dry and windy conditions are expected, with mainly localised short-duration showers on a few days. The total rainfall for January 2015 is expected to be approximately 40-60% below the long-term average of 242.4mm. Significantly below average rainfall for January was last recorded in 2014 and 2010.

5For February, which is climatologically one of the driest months of the year, below average rainfall is forecast. However, the current assessment is that the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon season this year is not likely to be of the same degree of dryness as that experienced during the record dry spell of 2014. PUB would also like to urge the community and industries to use water wisely and conserve precious water resources.

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JOINT ADVISORY BETWEEN PUB AND NEA

Singapore, 18 November 2014 – Singapore can expect more rainy days ahead with the onset of the Northeast Monsoon later this month, according to the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS). The first half of November 2014 has been wetter than usual in many parts of the island, with 188mm of rainfall recorded at the Changi climate station. Rainfall for November and December 2014 is expected to be about 20% above the long-term average of 256.6mm and 288.4mm respectively.

2The Northeast Monsoon season typically comprises a wet phase between late November and January, followed by a drier phase in February. The wet phase is characterised by short-duration moderate to heavy thundery showers mainly in the afternoon and evening, and about two to four episodes of monsoon surges. Monsoon surges refer to the steady strengthening of northeasterly winds blowing from the South China Sea. These monsoon surges usually bring periods of prolonged widespread moderate to heavy rain lasting between two and five days, occasionally windy conditions, and cooler temperatures.

3MSS will issue warnings when heavy rain or prolonged monsoon rain is expected, in addition to the regular weather forecast. This will help the public to better prepare for heavy rain. Heavy rain coinciding with high tides could lead to localised flash floods in low-lying areas. The public are advised to exercise caution during the Northeast Monsoon season as flash floods may occur in the event of heavy rainfall.

Enhancing Operational Preparedness

4In preparation for the upcoming Northeast Monsoon, PUB, the national water agency, works closely with NEA’s Department of Public Cleanliness (DPC) to ensure that our drains remain free flowing.

5Apart from reminding the construction industry to conduct checks on the public drains in the vicinity of their respective construction sites, PUB is also inspecting some 100 major construction worksites to ensure that the drains around the construction sites are free of debris and smooth-flowing.

Online Flood Monitoring Efforts

6As part of PUB’s flood monitoring efforts, a network of 161 closed circuit television (CCTV) cameras to monitor road conditions in low-lying areas and hotspots in real time. Some of these CCTV images are also available for the public to view via PUB’s website or PUB’s mobile app MyWaters and they are refreshed every five minutes.

7PUB has increased the number of water level sensors from 158 last year to 171 this year. Installed in the major drains and canals, these water level sensors provide real-time data on water levels, and serve to enhance PUB’s live monitoring of site conditions during heavy storms and enable quick response. PUB will be increasing the number of water level sensors to 200 by the first quarter 2015. Information from all water level sensors is also available for public viewing. The public can subscribe to the free SMS alert service via PUB’s website or get updates on rising water levels in the drains or canals on PUB’s Facebook, Twitter and PUB’s MyWaters mobile app.

Keeping the Public Informed

8In October, PUB officers had distributed flood advisories to some 500 residents and shop-owners in low-lying areas, some of which are subject to tidal influence. Besides alerts on the possibility of flash floods, the advisories also provide tips on the precautions that residents and shop owners could take to protect their belongings, such as by storing them on higher ground or placing sandbags or flood boards to block floodwaters.

9To obtain the latest weather reports, including heavy rain warnings, the public can tune in to radio traffic watch broadcasts, call MSS’ weather forecast hotline at 65427788, visit the NEA website at www.nea.gov.sg and access NEA’s mobile app MyENV or subscribe to the heavy rain warning SMS alert service provided by the MSS.

10During heavy rain events, the public can also be updated on flood alerts through various channels such as PUB’s Facebook at www.facebook.com/PUBsg, PUB’s Twitter at www.twitter.com/PUBsingapore, and PUB’s mobile app MyWaters. Motorists can also look out for flood updates via electronic signage on roads.

11Members of the public can call PUB’s 24-hour Call Centre at 1800-284 6600 to report on any flood situation. The public can also visit PUB’s website at http://www.pub.gov.sg/managingflashfloods to access the CCTV images and information on water levels in key canals and drains.

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Singapore, 27 October 2014 – Singapore and the surrounding region can expect more rain in the coming weeks, as the Southwest Monsoon has transitioned to Inter-Monsoon conditions over the past week. This signals the end of the traditional dry season in the region, and the likelihood of transboundary haze affecting Singapore for the rest of the year will thus be low, according to the Meteorological Service Singapore.

2 The Inter-Monsoon period normally lasts from October to November, and is characterised by more rainfall and light winds that are variable in direction. The increased rainfall will help alleviate the hotspot and haze situation in Sumatra and Kalimantan. During this period Singapore may experience occasional slight haze, mainly in the morning, on some days due to the accumulation of particulate matter in the air under light wind conditions. The haze situation is expected to improve further with the onset of the rainy season brought by the Northeast Monsoon in early December.

3 Based on the forecasts from most global climate models, a weak El Nino is still likely to develop towards the end of 2014 or early 2015. However, past El Nino events that form at that time of the year have been shown to have less impact on rainfall patterns in Singapore and the nearby region.

4 With the improvement in the haze situation, the National Environment Agency (NEA) will discontinue issuing the daily Haze Forecast and Health Advisory after Monday, 27 October 2014. Air quality readings will still be available hourly, from 7am to 11pm, on the haze microsite (www.haze.gov.sg), the NEA corporate website (www.nea.gov.sg), and on the MyENV application. Air quality readings from 12am to 6am will be made available at 7am on the same day. NEA will continue to monitor the weather and haze situation in the region, and update the public when necessary.

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Singapore, 08 August 2014 – The tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have continued to warm but gradually eased in recent weeks, slowing down the development of El Niño conditions. However, with most global climate models forecasting the continued warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming months, a weak to moderate El Niño [1] is still likely to develop in the last quarter of 2014, according to the Meteorological Service Singapore.

2Despite the observed warming over the tropical Pacific Ocean over the last few months, a number of atmospheric indicators of the El Niño, such as wind flow and cloudiness, have remained largely neutral. A plausible explanation for the lack of atmospheric response is that the warming has occurred over almost the entire tropical Pacific Ocean, including the sea areas in our region. During a typical El Niño development, warming is observed mostly in the eastern and central parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

3In the last few months the sea surface temperatures in our region have been warmer than normal, leading to increased convection and formation of rain clouds. This has contributed to the relatively wet weather conditions in Singapore and the surrounding region during the current Southwest Monsoon season. However there were still occasional periods of dry weather in June and July that led to an escalation of hotspot activities in Sumatra. During this period the western parts of Peninsular Malaysia were affected by transboundary smoke haze from Riau province in Sumatra on some days. There was also a sharp increase in hotspot activities in western Kalimantan due to drier weather in the second half of July. Singapore was not affected as southerly winds over our surrounding region helped to keep the haze away.

4As the Southwest Monsoon continues to prevail in the region till around October, extended dry and warm periods can be expected. Developing El Nino conditions could exacerbate the dry weather conditions and increase the risk of occurrence of transboundary smoke haze from land and forest fires in the region. Singapore could be affected if the prevailing winds blow the smoke haze from Sumatra or Kalimantan toward us.

5With the forecast of a weak to moderate El Nino in the last quarter of the year, it should be noted that the El Niño is known to have relatively less impact on weather patterns in Singapore and the nearby region during the Northeast Monsoon season (typically from late November to March). The risk of drier weather conditions due to the El Niño is thus expected to be lower towards the end of the year.

6For the National Day weekend, short-duration thundery showers are expected mainly in the late morning and early afternoon. With the prevailing southerly winds and rain showers also expected in the surrounding region, Singapore is not likely to be affected by transboundary smoke haze. Air quality is expected to be in the Moderate range this weekend.

7Meteorological Service Singapore will continue to closely monitor the conditions in the tropical Pacific that lead to the development of the El Niño, as well as the regional weather and haze situation, and provide updates if necessary.

[1] The El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and is known to disrupt normal weather patterns in various regions of the world. In Southeast Asia, the effect of the El Niño is prolonged drier and warmer weather in large parts of the region

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Singapore, 30 May 2014 – The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) is forecasting weak to moderate El Niño conditions to develop in the next few months, bringing drier and warmer conditions to Singapore and the region. Rainfall for Singapore over the coming Southwest Monsoon season between June and September 2014 could range between 10 – 40% below average, while the average daily temperature is expected to be about 1°C above average (refer to Table 1 for average values).

2The El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and is known to disrupt normal weather patterns in various regions of the world. In Southeast Asia, the effect of the El Niño is prolonged drier and warmer weather in large parts of the region. (further information on the El Niño is given in Annex A).

3Since March 2014, the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Pacific has been warming steadily. This is a known precursor to an El Niño build-up. Based on the latest warming trend in the Pacific Ocean, as well as the computer model forecasts from various global climate centres, El Niño conditions could develop as early as end July. The strength of the El Niño is forecast to be weak to moderate and is likely to peak in the last quarter of the year. Typically, an El Niño which peaks late in the year will start to weaken in the first half of the following year.

4Based on past El Niño events of moderate strength, Singapore is expected to experience below average rainfall during the June to September period, which is also the traditional dry season in the region that is brought about by the Southwest Monsoon. In 1963, when an El Niño of moderate strength occurred, Singapore’s rainfall total over this four-month period was reduced by almost 40% compared to the long-term average. In the more recent occurrence of a moderate El Niño in 2009, the corresponding figure was about 20% below the long-term average. Average daily temperature for the same period in 2009 was 1.1°C warmer than the long-term average of 27.4°C. The relationship between El Niño strength and impact on rainfall is however not straightforward, as there are also other factors affecting local and regional rainfall patterns.

5Rainfall in May 2014 has so far been above average for most parts of Singapore. However, drier weather can be expected from the second week of June 2014 with the onset of the Southwest Monsoon. For the next four months (June-September 2014), rainfall is expected to be below average for most parts of Singapore, and average daily temperature is expected to be above average.

6Prolonged drier and warmer conditions during an El Niño will increase the risk of the occurrence of transboundary smoke haze from land and forest fires in the region. Depending on various factors such as wind direction and locations of hotspots in the fire-prone areas, Singapore could be affected by transboundary smoke haze during this period.

7MSS will continue to closely monitor the conditions in the tropical Pacific that lead to the development of the El Niño, as well as the regional weather and haze situation, and provide updates if necessary.

8In anticipation of the onset of drier weather, the Inter-Agency Haze Task Force (HTF) has already been activated and is co-ordinating their respective action plans in preparation for haze. Forecasts and advisories will take into account the new PSI system, as well as the revised Ministry of Health (MOH)’s health advisories and Ministry of Manpower (MOM)’s workplace guidelines. The public can access the latest issued advisories at the NEA website (www.nea.gov.sg), the haze microsite (www.haze.gov.sg), or follow NEA on NEA Facebook (www.facebook.com/NEASingapore) and NEA Twitter (@NEAsg).

9Reservoir stock levels will be impacted by drier weather and lower rainfall. In response, PUB will have to ramp up its production of NEWater and desalinated water to maintain reservoir stock and ensure water availability. To prepare for the drier months ahead, PUB strongly urges the community and businesses to continue to conserve water, and play our part to stretch our water resources.

Table 1: Long-term temperature and rainfall statistics of Changi Climate Station

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Singapore, 16 March 2014 – Widespread, heavy showers in the late morning and afternoon today has ended the 27-day dry spell in Singapore that started on 17 February 2014. An earlier dry spell between 13 January and 8 February 2014 also lasted 27 days.

2The periods of showers that started at 9:40am today were due to an equatorial band of extensive rain clouds in the southern part of the South China Sea, brought in to Singapore and the surrounding region by strong, deep easterly winds. The showers were heaviest in the eastern and southern parts of the island, which received the least rainfall during the dry spell. All except one of the Meteorological Service Singapore’s 64 rainfall stations recorded rainfall above 1.0mm. As at 6.30pm today, the highest rainfall total is 52.6mm at Changi. 19 other stations in the east, south and central areas recorded rainfall totals ranging from 31.0mm to 51.8mm. The highest rainfall recorded in an hour is 33.2mm (between 12:35pm and 1:35pm) at Sentosa.

3For the next two days, thundery showers are forecast in the late morning and afternoon. With the easing of the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, more rainfall can be expected over the next fortnight as the Northeast Monsoon transitions to the Inter-monsoon period expected in the last week of March 2014.

4For updates, visit our NEA website (www.nea.gov.sg), haze microsite (www.haze.gov.sg) or follow us on NEA Facebook www.facebook.com/NEASingapore) and NEA Twitter (@NEAsg).

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