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Last month was the driest and second warmest March on record

Advisory

Singapore, 1 April 2016 – The prevailing Northeast Monsoon conditions are weakening to give way to inter-monsoon conditions during the fortnight. The prevailing low level winds during the outlook period are forecast to blow from the northeast and gradually become light and variable in direction.

2. For the first fortnight of April 2016, the prevailing dry and warm conditions are forecast to continue. In addition, short-duration thundery showers are expected over parts of Singapore on 4 to 6 days in the afternoon due to strong solar heating of land areas and convergence of winds in the surrounding vicinity. Rainfall in the next fortnight is likely to be below average.

3. During the outlook period, significantly warmer temperatures can be expected on some days where the daily maximum temperature is forecast to be between 33°C and 35°C. April is climatologically the warmest month of the year.

Review (1 – 31 March 2016)

4. During the review period, weakening Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed in the region with the low level winds over Singapore blowing predominantly from the northeast.

5. In March 2016, rainfall across Singapore was significantly below average. The highest rainfall of 133mm (41% below average) was recorded around the Queenstown area. At the Changi climate station, the total rainfall recorded in March 2016 was 6.2mm (96% below average), setting a new record for the driest March in Singapore since rainfall records started in 1869. The previous record was 18.5mm in March 1912.

6. Singapore experienced significantly warmer conditions in March 2016, with 18 days recording daily maximum temperatures exceeding 34.0°C; 13 of these days were in the second fortnight of March 2016. The highest daily maximum temperature recorded during the month was 35.3°C at Choa Chu Kang on 11 March 2016. This was also the highest temperature recorded so far this year. The mean monthly temperature of 29.0°C for March 2016 was 1.5°C warmer than the long-term mean for March, and ranks March 2016 as the second warmest March in Singapore since temperature records started in 1929. The warmest March was recorded in 1998 with a mean monthly temperature of 29.5°C.

CLIMATE STATION STATISTICS FOR APRIL (Climatological reference period: 1981 – 2010)

Mean daily maximum temperature	32.3 degrees Celsius
Mean daily minimum temperature	25.0 degrees Celsius
Mean monthly temperature	28.0 degrees Celsius
Mean rainfall for the month	154.8 mm
Mean number of rain days	14
Highest monthly mean daily maximum temperature	33.9 degrees Celsius (1983)
Lowest monthly mean daily minimum temperature	23.9 degrees Celsius (1982)
Highest monthly rainfall	311.6 mm (2000)
Lowest monthly rainfall	43.1 mm (1983)

 

2015 was the warmest and second driest year on record

 

Singapore, 22 March 2016 –The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) has today released its inaugural Annual Climate Assessment Report and launched its weather mobile application, ‘Weather@SG’, both in conjunction with World Meteorological Day (WMD) 2016. WMD is annually observed around the world on 23 March, and this year, the theme for WMD 2016 is “Hotter, drier, wetter. Face the Future” to illustrate the reality of climate change and to highlight that, without urgent action to cut emissions, the trend of increasing temperatures and the frequency and intensity of extreme events will accelerate.

 

Annual Climate Assessment Report 2015

2          MSS’ Annual Climate Assessment Report will be an annual publication available online at MSS’ website at https://www.weather.gov.sg, and serves to provide relevant and useful weather and climate information, and a perspective of the current climate of Singapore with that of historical records. The 2015 report provides details of the climate trends for Singapore, including climatic features and notable weather events that affected Singapore in 2015.

 

2015 as warmest year on record

3          When the world experienced its hottest year in 2015[1], Singapore similarly recorded one of its warmest years in history. 2015, together with 1997 and 1998 saw annual mean temperatures of 28.3 degrees Celsius, exceeding the climatological average by 0.8 degrees Celsius. In fact, eight of Singapore’s 10 warmest years have occurred in the current 21^st century. In years to come, there are indications of the daily mean temperatures increasing further, and the climatologically drier periods becoming drier and the wetter periods becoming wetter. Refer to Annex A for the table of 10 warmest years based on records at MSS’ climate station.

 

4          In 2015 Singapore also saw warmer than normal monthly temperatures for all months except February. New monthly records were set last year with the warmest months being July, October, November and December, the highest since Singapore’s temperature records began in 1929.

 

5          The warming trend in Singapore has been observed over a number of decades. The average rise of 0.25 degrees Celcius per decade from 1948 to 2015 is higher than the global warming rate of 0.12 degrees Celcius for a similar period (1951 – 2012). This trend is observed to be accompanied by an increase in the number of warm days (days with temperature above 34.1 degrees Celcius) and warm nights in Singapore, occurring against a background of year-to-year climate variability, mostly associated with El Niño and La Niña events.

 

2015 as second driest year on record

6          With only 1,266.8mm of rainfall recorded last year, 2015 was the second driest year,  with 1997 being the driest year. The drier weather in the second half of 2015 was exacerbated by the prevailing El Niño, which in turn contributed to one of the longest and most severe transboundary haze events experienced in Singapore. Refer to Annex A for the table of 10 driest years based on records at MSS’ climate station.

 

El Niño Outlook for 2016

7          The prevailing strong El Niño, which developed in mid-2015 and peaked in December 2015, is gradually weakening, and is forecast to weaken further as it transitions to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) conditions around mid-2016. Latest projections from major international climate centres indicate that there is equal likelihood for neutral conditions to perisist or for La Niña to develop in the later part of 2016. Over the next one or two months, warmer conditions can still be expected with the mean monthly temperatures likely to be significantly higher than their respective long-term averages. More warm days with daily maximum temperatures between 33 and 35 degrees Celsius can be expected.

 

Weather@SG Weather Application

 8          With indications that hotter, drier and wetter weather conditions could become more frequent in Singapore, timely weather information will become increasingly important. To facilitate a convenient means to check Singapore’s official weather forecasts and observations wherever you are, MSS has also launched its free weather mobile application, ‘Weather@SG’ today. The ‘Weather@SG’ mobile application can be downloaded from both the Apple App Store and the Android Play Store.

9          The ‘Weather@SG’ mobile application provides users with access to the latest national forecasts, observations as well as warnings and advisories. Through the ‘Weather@SG’ application, mobile phone users can receive push notifications of heavy rain warnings and other hazards. The weather mobile application has features to detect a user’s location and automatically display the 2-hour Nowcast and the current weather conditions such as temperature, rain amount and wind information. In addition, graphical temperature and rainfall trends for the past 12 hours are available. Users will also be able to view the rain areas over the island and up to 240km away.  Please refer to Annex B for screenshots of the ‘Weather@SG’ mobile application.

 

[1] As per media release issued by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Media Centre on 25 January 2016 (https://www.wmo.int/media/content/2015-hottest-year-record)

 

– End –

ANNEX A

 

Table of Records for the Top 10 Warmest and Driest Years in Singapore

 

The table below details the top 10 warmest annual mean temperatures as well as top 10 driest years for Singapore. The climatological (1981-2010) average for Singapore is 27.5⁰C for annual mean temperature and 2165.9 mm for annual rainfall.

 

<tdstyle=”width: 198px;”>27.919711613.5

Top 10 Warmest Year		Top 10 Driest Years
Year	Annual Mean Temp (0C)	Year	Annual Rainfall (mm)
2015	28.3	1997	1118.9
1998	28.3	2015	1266.8
1997	28.3	1985	1483.9
2010	28.1	1990	1523.8
2002	28.1	2014	1538.4
2005	28.0	1981	1555.8
2014	27.9	1960	1569.6
2009	27.9	1888	1605.0
2004
2003	27.8	1877	1654.0

Table 1: Top 10 Warmest and Driest years on record (based on climate station)

 

ANNEX B

 

Screen Shots of ‘Weather@SG’ Mobile Application

 

The screen shots below highglights some of the key feature of the Weather@SG’ Mobile Application.

 

Receive warnings of heavy rain and other hazards	Get the 2-hour nowcast and latest observations of your current and favourite locations
Access current rain areas	Get the weather forecast for the next 24 hours, and see what’s in store for the next few days

 

 

 

 

[1] As per media release issued by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Media Centre on 25 January 2016 (https://www.wmo.int/media/content/2015-hottest-year-record)

Afternoon thundery showers on some days

Advisory

Singapore, 1 March 2016 – Northeast Monsoon conditions are forecast to persist in March 2016 with low level winds blowing predominantly from the north or northeast.

2. In the first fortnight of March 2016, dry and occasionally windy conditions are expected to prevail on most days. Localised short-duration thundery showers are expected mostly in the afternoon on some days around the middle of the fortnight period. The showers may be heavy at times on days when there is convergence of winds coupled with strong solar heating of land areas. Rainfall for the first half of March 2016 is expected to be near-normal.

3. The dry weather experienced in the past week is expected to extend into the first two weeks of March 2016. The temperature during this period is expected to range between 24°C and 33°C on most days. On some days, warmer temperatures can be expected with the daily maximum temperature reaching as high as 34°C.

Review (1 – 29 February 2016)

4. Northeast Monsoon conditions continued to prevail over the region in February 2016. The low level winds in Singapore during the month blew predominantly from the northeast.

5. In the second week of February 2016, Singapore experienced occasionally windy and cool weather conditions where the lowest daily minimum temperature recorded was between 21.5°C and 22.5°C due to a monsoon surge that affected the region during the period. The monsoon surge brought moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall to Singapore where the total daily rainfall of 96.8mm over the Queenstown area was the highest daily rainfall recorded for February 2016.

6. In addition, Singapore experienced short-duration thundery showers mainly in the afternoon and evening on some days due to strong solar heating of land areas coupled with localised wind convergence. Dry and occasionally windy conditions were experienced in the last week of February 2016.

7. Rainfall across Singapore was above average in February 2016. The highest rainfall of 186mm (68% above average) was recorded over the eastern part of Singapore around Changi. Rainfall was lowest over the northeastern part of the island around Seletar, where 178mm (11% above average) was recorded.

8. Singapore experienced warm conditions on most days in February 2016. The highest daily maximum temperature recorded ranged between 33.8 and 34.2°C. The mean monthly temperature of 27.8°C for February 2016 is 0.7°C warmer than the long-term mean of 27.1°C for February, and ranks February 2016 as the fourth warmest February since 1929.

CLIMATE STATION STATISTICS FOR MARCH (Climatological reference period: 1981 – 2010)

Mean daily maximum temperature	32.0 degrees Celsius
Mean daily minimum temperature	24.6 degrees Celsius
Mean monthly temperature	27.5 degrees Celsius
Mean rainfall for the month	170.3 mm
Mean number of rain days	13
Highest monthly mean daily maximum temperature	34.1 degrees Celsius (1998)
Lowest monthly mean daily minimum temperature	23.7 degrees Celsius (1982)
Highest monthly rainfall	361.3 mm (1984)
Lowest monthly rainfall	34.3 mm (1997)

 

As we celebrate World Meteorological Day 2016, we are calling all avid shutterbugs to take this opportunity to showcase your best photographs which depict this year’s theme:

 
Photographs should be of locations in Singapore and Southeast Asia. Selected photographs will be featured on our website and used in other MSS educational and publicity material that reach a wide audience. In addition, winners will get a copy of“The Weather and Climate of Singapore”, a book written by a senior meteorologist in MSS!

Please email your photographs to NEA_MSS_Engage@nea.gov.sg with the subject “WMD2016 Photo Competition” with your name, and include a brief description of where and when they were taken. Submitted photographs should have a minimum resolution of 640 x 480 pixels. Closing date: 31 Mar 2016.
 
*NOTE* You hereby agree that by your actions of sending MSS the photographs, you permit MSS to have the non-exclusive license/right to use such submissions for its official publications.
 
More About World Meteorological Day 2016
 
World Meteorological Day commemorates the entry into force of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Convention which created the organisation in 1950. The day also recognises the work of meteorologists from across the globe. Each year, on 23 March, Singapore joins the other members of WMO to celebrate World Meteorological Day around a chosen theme. The theme for 2016 is: “Hotter, Drier, Wetter. Face the Future.”

HOTTER: In 2015 heatwaves affected Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East through the late spring and summer, with many new temperature records set. July brought heat waves to a large area from Denmark in the north, to Morocco in the south and Iran in the east. The heat continued in August and into September, shifting further into Eastern Europe.

DRIER: In 2015 dry areas included Central America and the Caribbean, northeast South America including Brazil, parts of central Europe and Russia, parts of Southeast Asia, Indonesia and southern Africa. In Western North America, long-term drought conditions continued. Basins across the west depend on snowpack as a water resource. On 1 April, the snow water equivalent was 5% of normal.

WETTER: In 2015 areas of high rainfall included: southern areas of the USA, Mexico, Bolivia, southern Brazil, southeast Europe, areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Heavy rain in January led to flooding in Malawi, Zimbabwe and Mozambique, and in February it affected Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. 2015 saw exceptional seasonal rainfall totals in several parts of Burkina Faso and Mali.

FACE THE FUTURE: Fortunately, the world’s governments are now fully convinced of the scientific evidence of climate change and the need to take urgent action. More research and investment is needed for advancing low-carbon technologies, particularly in the energy sector. But already many policies, technologies and actions are available, and their deployment needs to be scaled up. Individual citizens, community leaders, businesses, civil society organisations, governments and the United Nations system must all contribute.
 
Singapore’s National Climate Change Study Findings
 
Phase 1 of the Second National Climate Change Study was led by MSS’ Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS). Findings were released on 15 April 2015. The study involved tailored climate projections for Singapore which were of a higher spatial resolution than the global dataproduced under the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The Second National Climate Change Study projects that Singapore will experience significant changes in sea-level, temperature and rainfall (see infographic below).
 

 
Click here to learn more about this study
 

Lunar New Year period expected to be rainy

Advisory

Singapore, 1 February 2016 – Northeast Monsoon conditions are forecast to persist in February 2016 with the prevailing low level winds blowing predominantly from the north or northeast.

2. In the first fortnight of February 2016, short-duration thundery showers are expected mostly in the afternoon on four to five days. The showers may be heavy at times on days when there is convergence of winds coupled with strong solar heating of land areas.  For two or three days around the Lunar New Year period, a monsoon surge[1] is forecast to affect the region and this is expected to bring widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions to Singapore. Rainfall for the first two weeks of February 2016 is expected to be slightly above average.

3. The warmer temperatures experienced in the past few months are expected to extend into the first fortnight of February 2016.  During this period, the daily maximum and minimum temperatures could reach as high as 34°C and 27°C respectively on some days.

Review (1 – 31 January 2016)

4. The Northeast Monsoon season prevailed in January 2016, and the low level winds blew predominantly from the northeast.

5. Apart from a weak monsoon surge which brought widespread moderate rain over Singapore on a few days in the first week of January 2016, the rest of the month experienced afternoon and early evening thundery showers on most days due to strong solar heating of land areas and convergence of winds in the vicinity of Singapore. The thundery showers were heaviest on 22 January 2016 where the highest total daily rainfall recorded was 78.8mm around the Kent Ridge area.

6. Most parts of Singapore received below average rainfall in January 2016. Rainfall was lowest over the north-eastern part of Singapore around Sengkang, where 86 mm to 98 mm (56 to 62% below average) was recorded. The highest rainfall of 235 mm to 322 mm (9 to 59% above average) was recorded in the western part of Singapore around Jurong.

7. Despite the occurrence of showers on many days in January 2016, significantly warmer than usual conditions were experienced during the month. The mean daily maximum temperature (31.6°C) and mean daily minimum temperature (26.0°C) for January 2016 are 1.2°C and 2.1°C above their respective long-term means.

8. The mean monthly temperature of 28.3°C for January 2016 marks the warmest ever January since temperature records began in 1929, surpassing the previous record of 28.0°C set in January 1998. This follows the warmest December on record the previous month. December and January are climatologically the coolest months of the year.

CLIMATE STATION STATISTICS FOR FEBRUARY (Climatological reference period: 1981 – 2010)

Mean daily maximum temperature	112.8 mm
Highest rainfall ever recorded	470.4 mm (1984)
Lowest rainfall ever recorded	0.2 mm (2014)
Average number of raindays	8
Mean daily maximum temperature	31.7 degrees Celsius
Mean daily minimum temperature	24.3 degrees Celsius
Mean monthly temperature	27.1 degrees Celsius

 

[1] A monsoon surge is characteristic of the wet phase of the Northeast Monsoon season (Dec – Jan). It is due to the strengthening of northeasterly winds over the South China Sea and our surrounding region, and can bring widespread rain to coastal areas in the Southeast Asia region. Read more at https://www.weather.gov.sg/learn_weather_systems.

 

-End-

Showers can still be expected on some days

Advisory

Singapore, 15 January 2016 – For the next fortnight, Northeast Monsoon conditions are forecast to persist with the prevailing low level winds blowing predominantly from the northeast or northwest.

2. Singapore is likely to experience widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions on 2-3 days arising from the strengthening of the northeasterly winds over the region. For the rest of the fortnight, short-duration thundery showers can be expected mostly in the afternoon and early evening on 5 to 7 days. The showers may be heavy at times on days when there is convergence of winds coupled with strong solar heating of land areas. Rainfall for January 2016 is expected to be below normal.

3. The temperature range for January 2016 is forecast to range between 24 and 34 degrees Celsius, and the mean monthly temperature for January 2016 is likely to be significantly warmer than the long-term mean of 26.5 degrees Celsius for January.

4. The significantly warmer than usual temperatures experienced in recent months¹ can be attributed to the prevailing strong El Nino, which is currently at a mature level. Based on the forecasts from international climate centres, the El Nino is expected to gradually weaken over the next few months and return to neutral conditions by around mid-2016. For the next few months, the El Nino is still expected to bring drier and warmer conditions to Singapore.

Review (1 – 14 January 2016)

5. The Northeast Monsoon season which started in early December 2015 persisted into January 2016, and the low level winds in the first fortnight blew predominantly from the northeast or northwest.

6. A weak monsoon surge at the start of 2016 brought widespread moderate rain over Singapore. The monsoon surge was due to the strengthening of northeasterly winds over the South China Sea and our surrounding regioin. Following the weak monsoon surge, for the rest of the fortnight, Singapore experienced showers in the afternoon on some days due to strong solar heating of land areas coupled with localised wind convergence.

7. The mean temperature for the first fortnight of January 2016 was 28.1 degrees Celsius. This value exceeds the highest ever recorded mean temperature of 28.0 degrees Celsius (recorded in 1998) for the whole of January. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the first fortnight of January 2016 was 31.3 degrees Celsius and 25.9 degrees Celsius respectively, well above the long term average mean of 30.4 degrees Celsius and 23.9 degrees Celsius for January, respectively.

8. Rainfall for Singapore in the first fortnight of 2016 was well below average. The southeastern part of the island received the lowest rainfall of 26mm to 29mm (70% to 75% below normal) around Buangkok and Tanjong Katong while the highest rainfall of 103mm (6% above normal) was recorded in Sentosa.

¹ November 2015 (tie with 1998) was the warmest November on record with a mean monthly temperature of 28.0 degrees Celsius. December 2015 was the warmest December on record with a mean monthly temperature of 27.7 degrees Celsius.

Wet weather to usher in the new year

Advisory

Singapore, 31 December 2015 – In the next fortnight, Northeast Monsoon conditions are forecast to prevail over the region with the low level winds blowing predominantly from the northeast or northwest.

2. The start of the year 2016 is likely to experience a few days of widespread moderate to heavy rain and occasionally windy conditions arising from the strengthening of the northeasterly winds over the region. For the rest of the fortnight, short-duration thundery showers can be expected mostly in the afternoon and early evening on 6 to 8 days. The showers may be heavy at times on days when there is convergence of winds coupled with strong solar heating of land areas. The temperature range for the fortnight is forecast to be between 22 and 33 degrees Celsius.

3. Based on long-term statistics, January is the third wettest month of the year, after November and December. Rainfall for the first half of January 2016 is likely to be normal.

Review (1 – 30 December 2015)

4. Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed over the region in December 2015, with low level winds blowing predominantly from the northeast or northwest.

5. During the review period, most of the showers occurred in the afternoon and early evening due to strong solar heating of land areas and convergence of winds over Singapore. The highest total daily rainfall of 128.8 mm was recorded on 28 December2015 around Jurong Island due to heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon. In addition, a weak monsoon surge due to the strengthening of northeasterly over the region brought widespread rain to Singapore on 29 December. There were several warm days in December 2015 with highest daily maximum temperature recorded between 34.4 and 34.7 degrees Celsius. On a few rain days, the lowest daily minimum temperature recorded was between 22.4 and 22.5 degrees Celsius.

6. The mean monthly temperature and mean daily maximum temperature for December 2015 to date is 27.8 and 31.6 degrees Celsius respectively. These are likely to set new records for the warmest December, exceeding the previous highs of 27.3 degrees Celsius (in December 1997) and 31.3 degrees Celsius (December 1997 and 2002). 2015 is also likely to tie with 1997 and 1998 as the warmest year on record, with a mean annual temperature of 28.3 degrees Celsius. The record warm temperatures in 2015 and 1997 can be attributed to the strong El Nino events occurring in both years.

7. Half of Singapore received above average rainfall in December 2015. The highest rainfall of 420 mm to 480 mm (55% to 80% above average) was recorded in the western part of Singapore around Jurong Island. The northwestern part of Singapore around Kranji received the lowest rainfall where 150 mm to 200 mm (25% to 45% below average).

Expect occasionally windy and cooler conditions

Advisory

Singapore, 16 December 2015 – In the next fortnight, Northeast Monsoon conditions are forecast to prevail over the region with low level winds blowing predominantly from the northeast or northwest.

2. During this period, thundery showers are expected mostly in the afternoon and early evening on five to seven days due to convergence of winds coupled with strong solar heating of land areas. Occasionally windy conditions and cooler temperatures can be expected. In addition, widespread moderate to heavy rain arising from the strengthening of the monsoon winds are likely on two to three days in the second half of the period. The temperature range for the fortnight is forecast to be between 22 and 33 degrees Celsius.

3. Based on long-term statistics, December is the wettest month in the year. The rainfall for December 2015 is likely to be normal.

Review of 1 – 15 December 2015

4. Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed over the region in the first fortnight of December 2015, with low level winds blowing predominantly from the northeast or northwest.

5. Singapore experienced thundery showers in the afternoon and early evening on most days in December 2015 due to strong solar heating of land areas and convergence of winds over the region. The thundery showers were heaviest on 1 December 2015 where the highest total daily rainfall recorded was 114.2 mm in Sentosa. In addition, there were a few warm days where the highest daily maximum temperature recorded ranged between 34.2 and 34.7 degrees Celsius. On a few rainy days, the lowest daily minimum temperature recorded was between 22.4 and 22.8 degrees Celsius.

6. Most parts of Singapore received above average rainfall in the first fortnight of December 2015. The highest rainfall of 273 mm to 327 mm (95% to 120% above average) was recorded in the southern and central parts of Singapore around Sentosa and Orchard areas respectively. The eastern part of the island around Pulau Ubin received the lowest rainfall where 106 mm to 119 mm (0 to 30% below average) was recorded.