Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Outlook

Weekly Forecast for 5 - 18 Feb 2018

Issued 1 Feb 2018

During the first week of February 2018, the prevailing strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event is expected to persist . This is likely to bring drier (wetter) than usual conditions over the western (eastern) Maritime Continent. During the week, the presence of a strong monsoon surge could continue bring dry and strong monsoonal winds over the region. Below-normal rainfall is forecast, particularly over parts of the Mekong sub-region and in the surrounding region of Peninsular Malaysia and South China Sea. Above-normal rainfall is forecast for the eastern parts of Indonesia Archipelago and the Philippines.

In the second week of February 2018, the MJO is expected to weaken and gradually become neutral. Below-normal rainfall is forecast for the northern parts of Vietnam, Lao PDR, Thailand and the equatorial region. A development of a tropical low pressure system over the Western Pacific Ocean may bring above-normal rainfall over the Philippines.

Given that windy and drier than usual conditions are expected for the Mekong sub-region, an increase in hotspot activities, particularly in the fire-prone areas of the Mekong sub-region is likely. Vigilance should be maintained for any escalation of fire activities.

• Week-1
• Week-2