4.        Outlook

4.1    The prevailing Northeast Monsoon season is likely to continue till March 2012. Dry weather conditions are forecast to prevail over most parts of the northern ASEAN region. In the southern ASEAN region, the current wet weather conditions are expected till end January or early February 2012 when the Northeast Monsoon enters into the second (and normally drier) phase.

4.2With wet weather conditions expected to prevail over the southern ASEAN region till end January or early February 2012, hotspot activities are expected to remain subdued.  During the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon in February and March 2012, occasional hotspot activities can be expected in fire prone provinces of Borneo and Sumatra. For the northern ASEAN region, a gradual increase in hotspot activities can be expected over the next few months, particularly during periods of persistent dry weather. Vigilance should therefore be increased for any escalation in hotspot activities in the fire-prone areas during this period.

4.3With weak La Niña conditions expected to persist into the first half of 2012, rainfall in the ASEAN region is expected to be normal or slightly above normal over the coming months. The rainfall outlooks for the next three months are shown in Figs. 11 -13.

 

 

 Fig 11. Rainfall Outlook for the ASEAN Region (Jan 2012)

Fig 12. Rainfall Outlook for the ASEAN Region (Feb 2012)

Fig 13. Rainfall Outlook for the ASEAN Region (Mar 2012)

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