4.1      The prevailing Northeast Monsoon conditions are expected to strengthen in the coming weeks. In the southern ASEAN region, the current rainy season is expected to persist over the next two months until the later part of the Northeast Monsoon season in February and early March 2008 when weather conditions are expected to become drier. During the rainy season, the southern ASEAN region can expect a few spells of prolonged moderate to heavy rain with occasional windy conditions. Conversely, the northern ASEAN region can expect cooler and drier conditions during the Northeast Monsoon season.

4.2      Increased rainfall during the rainy season is expected to subdue hotspot activities in Sumatra and Borneo over the next two months. Therefore the southern ASEAN region is not likely to be affected by transboundary haze during this period due to wetter weather and the prevailing northeasterly winds. On the other hand, the onset of the traditional dry season in the northern ASEAN region is likely to lead to an increased build-up of hotspot activities in some parts of the region during this period.

4.3      With neutral conditions likely to prevail for the rest of the year, rainfall in the ASEAN region is expected to be normal or slightly above normal over the next three months (Fig. 11).

Fig 11. Rainfall Outlook for the ASEAN Region (Dec 2008 – Feb 2009)

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