1. INTRODUCTION
CPT (Climate Predictability Tool) is used, together with ECHAM4.5 Precipitation Model Output as predictors, and NASA's GPCP Rainfall Rate as predictands, to generate the following experimental 3-months seasonal forecasts for ASEAN on a monthly basis. The climatology training period for the datasets is from 1980 to 2007.
Click on the links on the left to view the probabilistic forecasts, the rainfall rate forecasts, and the corresponding skill scores. The forecasts were made using models constructed by the Principal Components Regression technique and the constructed models were validated using the cross-validation method. A more detailed explanation on the tool and the techniques used is available here.
2. ABOUT CPT TOOL
CPT is a Windows application created by IRI (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society), used for constructing a seasonal climate forecast model, performing model validation, and producing forecasts given updated data.
Its design has been tailored for producing seasonal climate forecasts using model output statistic (MOS) corrections to climate predictions from general circulation model (GCM), or for producing forecasts using fields of sea-surface temperatures. Although the software is specifically tailored for these applications, it can be used in more general settings to perform canonical correlation analysis (CCA) or principal components regression (PCR) on any data, and for any application.
For more information on the datasets used (training period: 1980 to 2007), please visit:
For more information on the tool, please visit iri.columbia.edu/climate/tools/cpt.
